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Those two festivals, one held with socially distanced in-person screenings and the At Least Jon Got To Pet Ghost Shirt Besides,I will do this other held primarily online, seemed to have sharply narrowed the best-picture race to a handful of films and have begun to clarify some of the other top races, most notably best actress and best director. With Telluride and Cannes both canceled this year, and with the New York Film Festival scaled back, Venice and Toronto may hold even more sway this year. In what promises to be the strangest of awards seasons, with continued uncertainty about when people will feel comfortable returning to movie theaters and the Oscars already pushed back two months to April 25, one factor remains constant: The Venice and Toronto film festivals are still a reliable predictor of the films that will most likely compete for the top awards.

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The Toronto audience award has been a good Oscar predictor since 2008, when Slumdog Millionaire was a surprise winner and went on to collect seven Oscars, including best picture. Since then, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book have all gone on to win that awards-season double, while runners-up in the At Least Jon Got To Pet Ghost Shirt Besides,I will do this audience award—Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite—have also claimed the best-picture prize. Earlier this month, Venice gave its Golden Lion award to Nomadland—a meditation on the current economic crisis starring Frances McDormand as a “houseless” woman traveling the country in her van—while also honoring its director, Chloé Zhao. (Last year, the Golden Lion went to Joker, immediately giving that film awards-season legitimacy and propelling Joaquin Phoenix to his first Oscar for best actor.) In Toronto, which followed Venice and just concluded earlier this week, the highly influential audience award also went to Nomadland.

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